The luxury goods market is amid a slowdown, with global spending dropping to lows not felt since the housing crisis in 2008—excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, of course—per Bain & Company.
The management consulting firm’s November report, produced in partnership with Altagamma, expected global luxury spending to land near 1.5 trillion euros (about $1.6 trillion) by year’s end; remaining “relatively flat” as consumers prioritizes have shifted amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a preference for luxury experiences instead of tangible goods.
Reporting on 2024’s zeitgeist, the “Nara Smith Schtick” sufficiently swung the quiet luxury trend into conservative territory, with some content creators deeming the election’s results deeply predictable in light of the (seemingly alternative) trad wife’s TikTok trajectory.
“As consumers seek value purchases, the secondhand market is gaining traction,” Bain said. So where does secondhand Chanel fold into that $1.6 trillion spend? More importantly: what should I buy now to sell later?
Rebag attempts to answer these questions in its latest report.
For context, it’s the fifth iteration of the 10-year-old marketplace’s Clair Report. In 2021, Rebag debuted Clair AI: an image recognition technology tool founder Charles Gorra once called “Shazam for handbags.”
Clair—short for Comprehensive Luxury Appraisal Index for Resale—is the startup’s proprietary database of 15,000-plus identification codes for high-end handbags. Clair AI, however, goes a step further, enabling the identification of any given purse’s brand and value based on an uploaded image. Think of it as the luxury handbag world’s Kelley Blue Book, but Fendi instead of Ford.
“What we’re looking at is the retention value of an item—how much is the item in the primary market versus how much are we able to buy it for,” Elizabeth Layne, Rebag’s chief marketing officer, told Sourcing Journal. “That not only helps people understand how much the items in their closet are worth, but also when they’re making a buying decision—on the primary or secondary market—they can consider if the item will hold its value over time.”
The most lucrative labels included Goyard, Hermès, Chanel, Louis Vuitton and Celine.
For the first time, the hand-painted chevron iconographer overthrew Hermès in terms of value retention, with both posting rates of 104 and 100 percent, respectively. Chanel and Louis Vuitton each made some gains (rising by 11 and 7 percentage points, respectively), both entering the “unicorn” category for the first time as value retention rates exceeded 85 percent.
“‘Unicorns’ are the top of luxury investments; they always maintain—often exceeding—their original value,” Layne said. “Generated by the exceptional scarcity, enduring high demand, iconic status.”
Celine, The Row, Prada and Miu Miu made waves, too.
Hedi Slimane’s Ava bag became an instant classic for Celine, while Prada jumped 13 percent, fueled by the Re-Edition 2000 Hobo bag at 109 percent value retention. Sister label Miu Miu saw the same increase, suggesting steady strength throughout the group. Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen’s The Row has risen as well. The minimalist brand saw a 14 percent increase in value retention, just shy of hitting 75 percent.
Notably, Telfar—the cult-followed shopping bagsby Telfar Clemens—was not mentioned.
The “made for everyone” brand joined Rebag’s roster of brands in 2021 and “immediately” hit the top of the charts; in 2022, The “Bushwick Birkin” brand averaged 195 percent of retail value. Telfar’s collaborations with Ugg, Eastpak and Moose Knuckles were strong resellers, retaining about 148-211 percent of the original price on the secondary market, per the 2022 data.
“Telfar definitely had a huge spike a few years ago—off the charts, skyrocketed. It still holds a decent resale value, but not the same,” Layne said. “I think there was almost too much in production; if you think about the brands in the report, they’ve focused on this exclusivity, this limited access, and I think that’s what has maintained their appeal over generations and generations.”
That tracks, considering Gucci’s Horsebit 1955 Messenger Bag saw a 160 percent increase since 2023. Bottega Veneta’s houlder Pouch increased 96 percent year-over-year and Chanel’s Ballerine camera case bag jumped 91 percent.
‘“I will say, in general, we’ve seen trends over the past year or two—last year was definitely very clear with quiet luxury—but I wouldn’t say Nara Smith is too far off of that,” Layne said. “It’s like the idea of being timeless, fiscally conservative, and all of that has played a role in luxury.”
That said, the inclusion of Brat Summer was unexpected. Cultural touchstones are not unusual, per se, to appear on secondhand platforms—the sheer power of TikTok trends, is.
Jools Lebron’s viral car confessional, for example, saw the “very mindful, very demure” content creator “promote a satirical take on modesty and mindfulness in daily life,” Rebag said, “coinciding” with the “rising popularity of ladylike accessories.”
The styles with the most notable upticks include the Hermès Sellier Birkin, which saw a 52 percent year-over-year increase—reaching a 250 percent value retention. Louis Vuitton’s Neverfull was 22 percent more valuable this year, hitting 158 percent. Goyard’s Plumet hands-free clutch wallet saw a 21 percent bump for a total of 139 percent.
“Quiet luxury really helped cement The Row—they got their huge investment and are continuing to climb up the charts,” Layne said. “They’re definitely one of the burgeoning luxury brands; you could even say, from a growth perspective, they’ve outperformed some of the heritage brands.”
The algorithm behind these findings is constantly updated with new data inputs, used for refining price structure based on what’s received (a classic case of supply and demand). The one bag Rebaggers couldn’t get enough of? The Mini Kelly.
“We can never have enough Mini Kelly’s because of the Bloomingdale’s partnership,” Layne said. “It’s mind-boggling.”
For context, the Rebag x Bloomingdale’s collaboration kicked off in early August. It’s been particularly fruitful for Hermès, considering the petite Hitchcockian purse retails on Revolve for $32,000 and Grailed for $5,800-ish.
