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Our current news cycle is a mix of micro trends and breaking news, but it’s the posts about the virality of “jammy nails” and “strawberry glazed donut” manicures that are dominating in 2024. This summer, Olympic coverage highlighted nail art from athletes like Sha’Carri Richardson, Suni Lee and Noah Lyles. Nails are everywhere. In today’s content-thirsty climate, even a decorative manicure can make headlines, as seen with Blake Lively’s micro-floral designs during the press tour of It Ends With Us.
But it doesn’t end there. The global nail-care market continues to grow, with projections reaching $23.4 billion by 2032. Despite economic uncertainties (though we’re not in a recession, many Americans report concerns about their personal finances), nail designs, manicures, nail art, press-on nails and nail polish remain more popular than ever.
So, what’s fueling our insatiable desire for nails? Are nails the new “lipstick effect?”
Featured Experts
- Tom Bachik is a celebrity manicurist and imPRESS brand ambassador
- Jim Swift is CEO of Buxton, a consumer analytics company
Small Luxuries in Tough Times
The Lipstick Effect refers to the tendency for people to indulge in smaller luxuries, like lipstick, during economic downturns. The term originated during the Great Depression when lipstick sales surged by 25 percent as people sought affordable indulgences. Some consider lipstick sales to be an economic indicator. Given the unmatched interest in nail content over the years, nail designs have become a little bit of luxury that is widely attainable.
“I think that the reason people turn to their nails during economic uncertainty mirrors the reasoning for the ‘lipstick effect,’” says celebrity manicurist and imPRESS brand ambassador Tom Bachik. “Manicures can be an affordable luxury when done right. You can see runway looks, and even though you can’t afford the luxury clothes, shoes, or bag, you can at least replicate the look in some way on your nails.”
A Shift Toward Self-Care
The growing interest in nail services indicates a shift in how people view small luxuries. Instead of accumulating more beauty products, many are turning to nail services as a form of self-care. Jim Swift, CEO of Buxton, a consumer analytics company, notes, “Recent data suggests an intriguing shift towards salon services as a modern equivalent to traditional beauty luxuries.” This implies that while spending on traditional beauty products remains stable, there is a growing trend toward salon experiences, particularly in certain regions.
According to NewBeauty’s BeautyEngine survey from August 2024, a significant majority of respondents—64.5 percent—view spending on nail services as a small luxury or treat. This supports the notion that people often turn to more affordable luxuries, like a fancy tube of lipstick, when they need to cut back on larger expenses. Despite potential economic pressures, more than a third of (33.1 percent) respondents say they’ve increased their spending on nail services over the past year.
Specifically, 28.8 percent say they have kept their spending levels on nail care the same, while 33.1 percent have somewhat increased their spending in this category, and 21.8 percent have significantly increased it. These numbers show that people continue to prioritize their nail services, even when considering other areas of spending.
An Affordable Indulgence
Accessibility is a key factor in the rising popularity of nail services. “While it’s clear that wealthier individuals consistently patronize salons, the increasing preference for salon services in certain areas might indicate that these personal-care rituals are stepping in as the new affordable luxury for some consumers,” says Swift.
With more people viewing nails as a vital part of their routines, popular designs and treatments also reflect broader beauty trends. “People tend to tone down the art a bit in economic downturns but still want to showcase their personality one way or another,” notes Bachik. “While not many people are going wild with designs right now, they’re still opting for fun nail looks. People often reach for brighter colors to brighten their outlook. As we move into fall and winter, expect many dark shades to have bright undertones.”
Bachik says nail art trends often mirror the fashion world, and we’re going to see an emphasis on less is more. “Micro flowers and mini stripes are popular for adding a simple yet stylish pop. These trends are all about subtlety, allowing individuals to express their personality without going over the top.”
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