Oscars Predictions: Supporting Actress – America Ferrera, Emily Blunt and Lily Gladstone Bring Early Critical Acclaim to the Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 14, 2023): The best supporting actress Oscar race already has the potential to be the most competitive of the four acting categories this year.

Whether Lily Gladstone ultimately decides to campaign for lead actress or supporting for her turn in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” a spot appears reserved for her in either category. After premiering at the Cannes Film Festival in May, Gladstone delivers an uncompromising portrayal as Mollie, an Indigenous woman whose family and tribal community are murdered by a sinister group of white men driven by their thirst for greed and power.

Indigenous representation in the Academy (and Hollywood) has been virtually nonexistent in the history of cinema. Assuming supporting actress is in the cards for her, she would be the second Indigenous actress ever nominated in the category after Jocelyne LaGarde for 1966’s “Hawaii.”

It’s a long awards season, and anything is possible on the circuit with the ongoing strikes continuing.

One of which is undoubtedly the one-two punch of America Ferrera for her work in Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and the upcoming “Dumb Money” from Craig Gillespie, slated to premiere at TIFF. The Emmy winner of “Ugly Betty” has had a big year, and she could be rewarded with joining the list of 10 Latinas ever to be recognized in best supporting actress. That shortlist has resulted in only two winners in 95 years — Rita Moreno and Ariana DeBose for the 1961 and 2021 versions of “West Side Story” (and for playing the same role).

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

With the reviews and successful box office for Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” we could finally find Emily Blunt to get her due as a nominee. Despite Golden Globe noms for “The Devil Wears Prada” (2005) and “Mary Poppins Returns” (2018) and a SAG-winning turn in “A Quiet Place” (2018), the British star has yet to be recognized. This could be her year.

There will be more to consider from first-half-year films such as “Air” (Viola Davis), “The Little Mermaid” (Melissa McCarthy) and “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Rachel McAdams). Still, there’s a buzz from unseen potential contenders such as “The Color Purple” (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey), if the movie is ultimately released this year, and “The Holdovers” (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), which could shake things up.

There’s also a slew of women that could factor into the discussion pending official category selections and/or awards screenings, such as — Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”), Julianne Moore (“May December”), Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”) and Jodie Comer (“The Bikeriders”).

There’s more to come.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  2. Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon) **
  3. Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  4. America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Next in Line

  1. Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **
  2. Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  3. America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  4. Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  5. Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  2. Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
  3. Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
  4. Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
  5. Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  6. Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24) **
  7. Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  8. Patti LuPone — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  9. Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  10. Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Also In Contention

  1. Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
  2. Claire Foy“All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  3. Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
  4. Tilda Swinton — “The Killer” (Netflix)
  5. Audra McDonald — “Rustin” (Netflix)
  6. Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
  7. Celia Weston — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  8. Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  9. Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  10. Moon Seung-ah — “Past Lives” (A24)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • Jodie Comer – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
  • Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  • Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  • Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)
  • Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)
  • Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
  • Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
  • Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
  • Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  • Jurnee Smollet – “The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
  • Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  • Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
  • Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
  • Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
  • Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  • Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
  • Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
  • Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  • Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
  • Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
  • Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)
  • Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)
  • Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **
  • Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
  • Jessica Chastain – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
  • Anne Hathaway – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
  • Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)
  • Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
  • Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)
  • Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **
  • Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix) **
  • Natalie Portman – “May December” (Netflix) **
  • Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
  • Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  • CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  • Vera Farmiga – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Niecy Nash – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Connie Nielsen – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Marion Cotillard – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Noémie Merlant – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Andrea Riseborough – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
  • Lashana Lynch – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) **
  • Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Celia Weston – “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)
  • Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Rebecca Ferguson – “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Florence Pugh – “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Lea Seydoux – “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Olivia Colman – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
  • Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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